DRC Geopolitical Risks Escalate, Disruptions to Tin Ore Supply Intensify [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

March 21, 2025 Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) maintained a high-level fluctuation in the morning session. By the midday break, it was quoted at 280,710 yuan/mt, up 0.62% from the previous day's settlement price, with an intraday high of 282,900 yuan/mt. Open interest slightly decreased by 552 lots to 23,100 lots, indicating a tentative outflow of funds. The eastern mining hub of Walikale in the DRC has been taken over by the anti-government "M23 Movement." This region is rich in tin ore, and the world's third-largest tin mine, Bisie, has suspended operations and evacuated personnel. The DRC accounts for approximately 6-8% of global tin production, and this incident directly heightened market concerns over supply chain disruptions. Additionally, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State will take more than three months, making it difficult to fill the short-term supply gap, which supports the upward trend in tin prices. Key Support/Resistance: The midday price held above the 5-day moving average (281,200 yuan/mt), with resistance at the 285,000 yuan/mt level. If this level is breached, it could open up further upside room; otherwise, there is a risk of profit-taking pressure. Short-Term Drivers: The progress of the conflict in the DRC and the pace of resumption in Myanmar are the core variables. If the situation in the DRC deteriorates, leading to more mine shutdowns, SHFE tin may target 290,000 yuan/mt. Conversely, if the conflict eases, prices may retest the 280,000 yuan/mt support.